Sports betting: wager or wise strategy?

The majority of South Africans are feeling the weight of economic pressure. Unemployment remains stubbornly high, the cost of living keeps rising, and financial uncertainty has become part of daily life. In times like these, it’s natural to look for an escape. For a growing number of people, that escape is sports betting.

With a cell phone in hand, an internet connection, and a few rands in your account, bets can be placed in seconds. In a country of sports fanatics and “gees”, the temptation is strong and may feel harmless, even hopeful. Back your favourite team, and hope that their win may translate into an upliftment for you out of financial struggle.

We know the risks. We know we could lose it all. But these are small bets and small losses aren’t they? The alternative is a massive win, right? And the hope of that one big win being enough to pay off debt or change our fortunes keeps us coming back.

But, have you considered what would happen if that same money, instead of being used for sports betting, was used towards paying down debt or slowly building savings? What would the outcome be?

Let’s consider the story of two fictional twins, Sizwe and Sifiso, whose choices reflect a dilemma many South Africans face today.

Meet the twins

Sizwe and Sifiso are 32-year-old twin brothers working at the same corporate in Sandton, each earning R30 000 a month. Despite their shared background, their financial journeys are dramatically different.

Sizwe, the responsible and family-oriented twin, recently got married and rented a new home for himself and his wife. To help cover the costs of labola and furnishing their rental, he took out a R72 000 unsecured personal loan over five years, with an interest rate of 22 percent.

Sifiso, the adventurous and sports-loving twin, was inspired by Sizwe’s loan but had different plans. He borrowed the same amount, on the same terms, to fund a once-in-a-lifetime holiday with his friends.

Different financial journeys

Sizwe is committed to repaying his loan as soon as he can.

Sifiso chooses to bet R1 000 a month and often misses the minimum monthly repayment on his loan. He spends this amount by placing 20 sports bets, each costing R50, every month.

He hopes for a big win that could clear his debt – and if there’s anything left over, he plans to use it to fund future travels.

SPORTS BETTING WAGER  OR WISE STRATEGY?
	Sizwe	Sifiso
Initial loan at age 32	R72 000	R72 000
Monthly repayment	R1 989	R1 989
Monthly repayment actual	R1 989	R1 939*
Monthly spend on betting	R0	R1 000
Interest repaid on loan	R47 314	R49 893
Outstanding debt at age 37	R0	R5 385
Spent on betting less any winnings	R0	R3 000
* This reflects the average amount that Sifiso can afford after sports betting. Statistical modelling shows that Sifiso loses on average R50 per month, even when always backing the home team for the win at odds of 2.1.    Calculations by the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Market Conduct Committee www.smartaboutmoney.co.za

Fast forward five years

Sizwe and Sifiso recently celebrated their 37th birthday with a shared braai. Over a beer, they reflected on the personal loans they had taken out five years earlier.

Sizwe is proud to say that he has repaid his loan in full and can now start saving in a money market account for his family’s future needs.

Sifiso, on the other hand, has fallen behind on his repayments. His plan to use sports betting to clear his debt didn’t work out. Over the past five years, losses far outweighed wins, and he’s down about R3 000 from his own pocket and has incurred additional interest on his personal loan as a result. He still owes the bank R5 385.

The odds are not in your favour

For avid sports fans, sports betting can feel “predictable.” Overconfidence leads many to believe they can beat the system in the long run.

But the numbers tell a different story. If you place 20 bets a month for five years, the chance of making any profit at all is only about five percent. In other words, 19 out of 20 people will be worse off. Why? Because bookmakers build in a margin that guarantees their profits over time, not yours.

In Sifiso’s case, his plan to bet his way out of debt only deepened his financial struggles. Sizwe, by contrast, chose discipline: clearing his debts, and now aiming to build a savings cushion, to enjoy financial peace of mind. Sifiso’s optimism led to strain and uncertainty, while Sizwe’s patience built lasting security.

Bet on yourself

Gambling is designed to feel exciting. It’s easy to access via your cell phone, gives you a dopamine hit, and plays on powerful human emotions such as hope, desperation, thrill, and the dream of a big win. It’s something to talk about, something to feel alive about.

But behind the excitement lies a harsh reality: the odds are not in your favour.

Bookmakers build in margins that ensure that they win and not you. Over time, the losses add up, and the dream of financial freedom slips further away.

Sizwe’s story shows a different path. Through consistency, discipline, and patience, he built real wealth and peace of mind, without any luck. He bet on himself and his hard work which reaped its return.

Final thought: If you treat sports betting as a form of entertainment and you spend only what you can afford to lose, with no illusions about long-term gains, then for you it is a discretionary expense. Using betting as a financial strategy, however, is different game.

Written with analysis and input from the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Market Conduct Committee.